Thursday, February 22, 2007

Horse Racing Betting Odds

You will notice that as wagering on a race progresses closer to post time, the odds will change. Why is that you ask? The Cash that is wagered in a horse race is counted up and put into Pools. What is a Pool? A Pool is where the total amount of money that is wagered on a specific type of bet is held to be redistributed to patrons that have correctly selected the outcome of the specific wager they have placed. Out of these pools certain percentages are subtracted. The Government receives a percentage (taxes) for allowing the race in a certain jurisdiction. The Racetracks receive a percentage for promotions, maintaining the racetrack, and paying employees. The horsemen receive a percentage that makes the Race Tracks able to offer purse money to the owners and trainers for racing horses. If there was no money, there would be no racing. After the percentage is removed, the remaining money is paid out. This is where gamblers get their payouts for winning tickets.

The odds are usually in the form of x/y (e.g. 5/1, 9/5). Dividing x by y gives a ratio to 1. The smallest ratio or the largest amount of money on a number represents the favorite.

Winning odds of 2/1 will pay $6.00 for a $2 bet, while 5/1 will pay $12.00 for a $2 bet. Payout is calculated by (odds ratio to 1) x bet amount + bet amount.

Example: For odds of 5/1, the approximate payout for a $2 bet is 5 x $2 = $10 + $2 = $12.

Some tracks allow different minimum amounts on each type of bet; generally, $1 bets tends to be the minimum on all bets. The offshore sportsbook odds are calculated based on the sales for the bet minus a government, and handling tax. These deductions vary and are usually controlled by a regulatory body. Deductions may vary in the same track if there are simulcast races. In addition some tracks tax payouts in excess of a specified limit; generally, this limit is 600/1.

Horse Racing System Evaluation

Finding a good horse racing system is the Holy Grail of wagering for both casual and serious punters. Almost everyone has his/her own type of horse racing system. You have probably heard of some different types of horse racing systems that people have proffered over the years. Some are quite zaney and some are based on sound understanding of several factors that can affect the outcome of any given horse race. Here are some of the things to consider when evaluating any horse racing system you may be considering:

Does the horse racing system take into consideration the number of horses running in the race? Races that have a lot of entries are more difficult to choose which horses will do well. The number of entries in a race greatly affects every horses’ chance of winning the race. Of course, some horses do better in larger fields than others. A good horse racing system should allow you to make allowances for the number of entries in the horse race.

Weather is another factor that can greatly impact the outcome of a horse race. Just like people, some horses do better on a wet and muddy track than others. You should make allowances for track conditions when deciding on which horses to bet on when using any horse racing system.

How recently a horse has run is another consideration when using your horse racing system. A good rule of thumb is ideally the horse should have raced within the last 4 weeks or 28 days. Not too much racing but not too little either is good for a horse to maintain good form during the racing season. A horse’s form is a factor in how well he will do in a race. When using a horse racing system, the horses’ form should be part of the equation for determining the best bet.

Probably the simplest and best horse racing system is to bet on only the top favorites. When you bet on favorites you’ve got the odds working in your favor. In other words, there is a greater probability one of the top favorites will win the race. Any horse with a 3/1 or less in the betting is a good pick. If your horse racing system works with favorites, it is probably going to be a horse racing system that you can use to make some good money.

Horse Racing Betting, a Beginners Guide

So you want to bet on the horses but you haven’t got a clue where to start. You look at the form but at this stage the numbers don’t mean a thing. Well listen up as what I’m about to tell could result in a few winners today.

First things first, ignore the jockeys silk (There nice colours, So What!) and don’t try and pick a cool sounding name.

Right now I’ve got that off my chest let me tell you a few things you need to take into account;

Look at the jockey who is riding the horse and look at the trainer of the horse. There will also be a section that say’s ‘top jockeys’ and ‘top trainers’. Make sure you pick a good trainer and then second to that a good jockey.

The next factor to take into consideration is those little form numbers at the side of the horses name, what your looking for are 1,2 and 3’s these mean first, second and third in a race and if it has a few on these it’s last five races it’s in form and should stand a good chance to run well.

So now we should have a horse with a good trainer and a decent jockey that is showing some past form. The selection should have a good run and hopefully with a bit of look it will finish well.

There is plenty more factors to take into account when selecting winning horses and you can use horse racing systems to help you select winners. In part two I’m going to show you a few little letters you should look out for when selecting for horses.

Horse Racing Betting System - Designing a Simple System

Putting together a system is not as difficult as it may sound, even for a beginner. The important thing, and with any betting, is that you write down every rule and follow it for at least 100 bets. You do not need to trade real money, paper trading is best at first. If after 100 bets it is in profit, you can then give it a betting bank and start gambling.

Starting an untested system with real money, and packing it in on its first losing run, putting it down as failed, will only cost you more and more money in the long term. Being patient saves you money.

So let us get down to starting a system eh? I’ll show you below how simple they are to put together, this example is profitable, so no reason why you can not follow it with a betting bank, but its yearly profits are not huge, but have a go at your own, always making sure that you understand way a rule works.

The system below is designed for National Hunt racing.

‘The NH High SR Non-Handicap Fav System’

Rule 1: Non-Handicap races only. This ensures that we do not include handicap races, which are more difficult to get profitable systems out of. Although when you do they are more profitable than non-handicap races.

Rule 2: Forecast Favourite only (if joint VOID bet) Just to make sure we have one clear qualifier for our non-handicap race.

Rule 3: Forecast price must be odds on. I know that the lower the odds the more likely it is to win, although the lower the odds the smaller the profit for a new bank.

The first 3 rules of any systems I quantify as the main system rules, they ensure we have the main set of qualifiers we are looking for. Those rules after, I regard as filters to take out any facts I know are not profitable long term.

Rule 4: Horse age must be 6+ This is because in the UK, horses are not generally full wound up for jumping until they are at least 6, so those of a lower age have erratic results that do not prove profitable, so no use including them.

Rule 5: Horse must have finished 2nd or worse on its last run. Horses that won last time out usually go off at lower odds than they should, so an edge is taken away.

Rule 6: Must be a gelding. Geldings win the majority of races over fences, and are generally have the most consistent and reliable form.

Rule 7: Going must be Good-Soft or better. Any softer than this and results can get a bit random.

That is it. Over the last 10 years it has produced a 48pt profit even at those low odds, and a 63% SR overall. It has had 3 losing years in that period, the worst being 5pts, but using the betting exchange prices, they would also have shown a profit.. There are around 100 bets per year.

So you can see by this example, it does not profit every year, but long term it still shows a profit, and it is long term that any professional gambler will tell you is the only time span that matters.

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